11月1-16日 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 893 vs 1277 (下降30%) (YoY sales)
vs10月: 893 vs 1040 (下降14%) (MoM sales)
新上市: 1606 vs 1777 (下降10%) (New lists)
比例: 55.6% vs 71.9% (差16%) (Ratio)
预计月底成交量: 1650 vs 2360 (同比下降30%,环比下降15%) (Est. Month end sales)
预计月底新上市: 2750 vs 3222 (同比下降15%) (Est. Month end new lists)
预计月底总房源: 15900 vs 14090 (同比上升13%) (Est. Month end inventory)
滞销量:9.4-9.8月 (预计) vs 6.0月 (同比) (MOI)
大温地区滞销量在11月底将达到9.6个月,比上个月(9.0个月) 滞销加剧, 继续维持于明显买方市场
今年11月成交/新上市比 将成为十多年来第二低,仅次于2008年。
预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续下跌。
年份 成交 新上市 比例
2001 2614 2697 96.9%
2002 2555 2638 96.9%
2003 3018 2955 102.1%
2004 2486 3234 76.9%
2005 2938 3271 89.8%
2006 2358 3168 74.4%
2007 2883 3377 85.4%
2008 874 3022 28.9%
2009 3083 3653 84.4%
2010 2509 3030 82.8%
2011 2360 3222 73.2%
2012 1650 2750 60% (预测)
Saturday, 17 November 2012
Richmond 列治文 最近成交单位
8100 Elesmore rd
开价 965k
降价后 859k
成交价 800k
估价 958k (-16.5%)
4851 Foxglove Cr
开价 988,888
降价后 808k
降价后 798k
成交价 738k
估价 1,049k (-30%)
11731 Yoshida Ct
开价 758k
降价后 738k
成交价 680k
估价 743k (-8.5%)
6731 Dunsany Pl
开价 939k
成交价 886k
估价 1,100k (-20%)
3411 Barmond ave
开价 1,398k
成交价 1,209k
估价 1,371k (-12%)
8151 Dalemore Rd
开价 1,599k
成交价 1,505k
估价 1,769k (-15%)
开价 965k
降价后 859k
成交价 800k
估价 958k (-16.5%)
4851 Foxglove Cr
开价 988,888
降价后 808k
降价后 798k
成交价 738k
估价 1,049k (-30%)
11731 Yoshida Ct
开价 758k
降价后 738k
成交价 680k
估价 743k (-8.5%)
6731 Dunsany Pl
开价 939k
成交价 886k
估价 1,100k (-20%)
3411 Barmond ave
开价 1,398k
成交价 1,209k
估价 1,371k (-12%)
8151 Dalemore Rd
开价 1,599k
成交价 1,505k
估价 1,769k (-15%)
Thursday, 15 November 2012
Eurozone recession is here. No surprise here.
就如GF半年前谈过的: 欧盟濒临"严重经济衰退"
这个经济衰退已经发生
Euro zone slips into second recession since 2009
By Robin Emmott | Reuters – 11 hours agoThe euro zone fell into a recession in July-September, the second since the global financial crisis in 2009, as French resilience could not make up for a slump across Europe and the three-year debt crisis slowed Germany to a crawl...Friday, 9 November 2012
11月1-9日 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 546 vs 814 (下降33%)
vs10月: 546 vs 649 (下降16%)
新上市: 1027 vs 1152 (下降11%)
比例: 53% vs 71% (差18%)
预计月底成交量: 1650 vs 2360 (同比下降30%,环比下降15%)
预计月底新上市: 2750 vs 3222 (同比下降15%)
预计月底总房源: 15900 vs 14090 (同比上升13%)
滞销量:9.4-9.8月 (预计) vs 6.0月 (同比)
大温地区滞销量在11月底将达到9.6个月,比上个月(9.0个月) 滞销加剧, 继续维持于明显买方市场
今年11月成交/新上市比 将成为十多年来第二低,仅次于2008年。
预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续下跌。
年份 成交 新上市 比例
2001 2614 2697 96.9%
2002 2555 2638 96.9%
2003 3018 2955 102.1%
2004 2486 3234 76.9%
2005 2938 3271 89.8%
2006 2358 3168 74.4%
2007 2883 3377 85.4%
2008 874 3022 28.9%
2009 3083 3653 84.4%
2010 2509 3030 82.8%
2011 2360 3222 73.2%
2012 1650 2750 60% (预测)
Wednesday, 7 November 2012
多伦多condo卖方的哭诉...
“我真的真的没有办法预测到事实居然这样地糟。。房市不是已经旺盛了四，五年了吗？”
- Maria 的一房一厅大多condo已上市三个月了还卖不出去。
“这一切都带给我好大的压力， 我晚上常常因此而睡不好”
多伦多公寓成交量虽然不断下跌，但是大量的新楼盘在大多却不断地在兴建。
- City TV 11月6日新闻
“I honest never saw this coming.. never..because the boom has been here for a while like 4, 5 years.”
Maria has been trying to sell her 1BR loft for more than 3 months. “It’s very stressful.. sometimes I’m not sleeping well”
… the condo sales may be dropping but the construction is still going strong esp in the downtown core,
with over 50k units under construction in GTA.
http://www.citytv.com/toronto/cityne...ing-in-toronto
- Maria 的一房一厅大多condo已上市三个月了还卖不出去。
“这一切都带给我好大的压力， 我晚上常常因此而睡不好”
多伦多公寓成交量虽然不断下跌，但是大量的新楼盘在大多却不断地在兴建。
- City TV 11月6日新闻
“I honest never saw this coming.. never..because the boom has been here for a while like 4, 5 years.”
Maria has been trying to sell her 1BR loft for more than 3 months. “It’s very stressful.. sometimes I’m not sleeping well”
… the condo sales may be dropping but the construction is still going strong esp in the downtown core,
with over 50k units under construction in GTA.
http://www.citytv.com/toronto/cityne...ing-in-toronto
CMHC continues to lower its forecast
CMHC 2011年2月房市预测:
"Home prices to track inflation: CMHC"
房价会随着通膨上升。
The existing home market will remain in the balanced to sellers' market range in 2011 and 2012," CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan said in a release.
2011及2012房市将维持在平衡至卖方市场。
Modest economic growth will continue to push employment levels higher this year and next
2011 及 2012 适中的经济成长将增加就业率
2012-8月 CMHC 预测
Average prices, which are down about five per cent in Vancouver this year from last year, are expected to climb about 2.6 per cent by 2013, both in Vancouver and across B.C.
大温房价比去年下跌5%， 但是CMHC预测2013年将上升2.6%.
2012年11月6日 CMHC报告:
The resale market is projected to move from a buyers' market to a more balanced market by mid-2013 in B.C.
大温二手市场将在2013年中进入平衡市场
We see a pick up in growth in both employment and the economy next year, and that's what leads to a slightly stronger outlook for housing
我们认为经济及就业率明年将改善，所以房市应也会改善
The average annual MLS price in Metro Vancouver is projected to end 2012 down 6.4 per cent to $730,000 and then drop a further 0.3 per cent in 2013 to $728,000
大温房价已比去年下跌6.4%， CMHC预测2013年将再下跌0.3%.
GF: 未来几个月/几年，随着房市下跌 CMHC会不断改口，下调预测。
他们的目的，与地产协会一样，是使大众安心，避免提到房市不好的前景。
大温失业率2012年明显升高，加国经济逐渐恶化。 CMHC 何能预测2013年加国经济及就业率会好转?
GF会回来复习此帖。
"Home prices to track inflation: CMHC"
房价会随着通膨上升。
The existing home market will remain in the balanced to sellers' market range in 2011 and 2012," CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan said in a release.
2011及2012房市将维持在平衡至卖方市场。
Modest economic growth will continue to push employment levels higher this year and next
2011 及 2012 适中的经济成长将增加就业率
2012-8月 CMHC 预测
Average prices, which are down about five per cent in Vancouver this year from last year, are expected to climb about 2.6 per cent by 2013, both in Vancouver and across B.C.
大温房价比去年下跌5%， 但是CMHC预测2013年将上升2.6%.
2012年11月6日 CMHC报告:
The resale market is projected to move from a buyers' market to a more balanced market by mid-2013 in B.C.
大温二手市场将在2013年中进入平衡市场
We see a pick up in growth in both employment and the economy next year, and that's what leads to a slightly stronger outlook for housing
我们认为经济及就业率明年将改善，所以房市应也会改善
The average annual MLS price in Metro Vancouver is projected to end 2012 down 6.4 per cent to $730,000 and then drop a further 0.3 per cent in 2013 to $728,000
大温房价已比去年下跌6.4%， CMHC预测2013年将再下跌0.3%.
GF: 未来几个月/几年，随着房市下跌 CMHC会不断改口，下调预测。
他们的目的，与地产协会一样，是使大众安心，避免提到房市不好的前景。
大温失业率2012年明显升高，加国经济逐渐恶化。 CMHC 何能预测2013年加国经济及就业率会好转?
GF会回来复习此帖。
CMHC 董事会
真的认为CMHC是没有私利可求的公营机构，那就太天真了。
CMHC 董事会:
大半是地产协会/开发商/建商 等兼职的。
难怪最近舆论直批CMHC， 甚至要求私有化CMHC, 以保障纳税人利益。
Sophie Joncas (Interim Chair)
St-Hubert, Quebec
Chartered Accountant 会计师
“.. professional experience in the public and private sectors, including construction and real estate firms, has enabled her to assist companies with their business and strategic planning needs…”
Karen Kinsley 地产开发商副总裁
Ottawa, Ontario
President and Chief Executive Officer, CMHC
“Prior to joining CMHC, Ms. Kinsley was Vice-President and Treasurer with two real estate development companies.”
James A. Millar
National Capital Region
Associate, The Sussex Circle
["A career public servant."]
Brian Johnston
Toronto, Ontario 地产开发商总裁
President, Monarch Corporation
“..the President of Monarch Corporation, one of Canada’s oldest and largest real estate companies. … an active member within the home-building industry.”
André G. Plourde
Montréal, Quebec 蒙特利尔地产公司总裁
President, Groupe immobilier de Montréal Inc.
“…President of Montreal Real Estate Group Inc. since 2001, an important commercial real estate brokerage firm in Montreal.”
E. Anne MacDonald
Pictou, Nova Scotia
Lawyer 律师
["..has operated a general law practice in the Town of Pictou, Nova Scotia, since 1979."]
Michael Gendron
Edmonton, Alberta 造房公司业主
Chief Financial Officer, Mancap Group
“…part owner of Mancap Ventures Inc., a privately owned venture capital company with majority equity interest in a number of homebuilding and support companies based in Edmonton, Alberta.”
Rennie Pieterman
London, Ontario 伦敦造房协会董事，曾任为总裁
Partner, Practical Plumbing Co. Ltd.
“…partner at Practical Plumbing Co. Ltd. … served eight years on the Board of Directors of the London Home Builders’ Association, including as President in 2003. … a member of the Association’s Renovators’ Council since 1994.”
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/a...o/cogo_004.cfm
http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2012/05/0...g-corporation/
CMHC 董事会:
大半是地产协会/开发商/建商 等兼职的。
难怪最近舆论直批CMHC， 甚至要求私有化CMHC, 以保障纳税人利益。
Sophie Joncas (Interim Chair)
St-Hubert, Quebec
Chartered Accountant 会计师
“.. professional experience in the public and private sectors, including construction and real estate firms, has enabled her to assist companies with their business and strategic planning needs…”
Karen Kinsley 地产开发商副总裁
Ottawa, Ontario
President and Chief Executive Officer, CMHC
“Prior to joining CMHC, Ms. Kinsley was Vice-President and Treasurer with two real estate development companies.”
James A. Millar
National Capital Region
Associate, The Sussex Circle
["A career public servant."]
Brian Johnston
Toronto, Ontario 地产开发商总裁
President, Monarch Corporation
“..the President of Monarch Corporation, one of Canada’s oldest and largest real estate companies. … an active member within the home-building industry.”
André G. Plourde
Montréal, Quebec 蒙特利尔地产公司总裁
President, Groupe immobilier de Montréal Inc.
“…President of Montreal Real Estate Group Inc. since 2001, an important commercial real estate brokerage firm in Montreal.”
E. Anne MacDonald
Pictou, Nova Scotia
Lawyer 律师
["..has operated a general law practice in the Town of Pictou, Nova Scotia, since 1979."]
Michael Gendron
Edmonton, Alberta 造房公司业主
Chief Financial Officer, Mancap Group
“…part owner of Mancap Ventures Inc., a privately owned venture capital company with majority equity interest in a number of homebuilding and support companies based in Edmonton, Alberta.”
Rennie Pieterman
London, Ontario 伦敦造房协会董事，曾任为总裁
Partner, Practical Plumbing Co. Ltd.
“…partner at Practical Plumbing Co. Ltd. … served eight years on the Board of Directors of the London Home Builders’ Association, including as President in 2003. … a member of the Association’s Renovators’ Council since 1994.”
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/a...o/cogo_004.cfm
http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2012/05/0...g-corporation/
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