加国财长公开指出，打房政策还未完全展现其影响力

Finance official questions link between cooling housing market, mortgage rules

BILL CURRY

Ottawa — The Globe and Mail

Published Monday, Oct. 29 2012, 5:57 PM EDT

Canada’s deputy minister of finance says he isn’t convinced tighter mortgage rules his department announced in June are behind the recent cooling in the housing market.

In a rare public speech, Michael Horgan argued that recent comments linking the two are premature.

“There’s some evidence that the housing market, particularly in some markets, is cooling and slowing at the moment,” he said Monday during a presentation to business students at Carleton University. “We read a lot of press commentary that’s saying it’s because of the government’s changes to mortgage insurance rules. I think it’s actually too early to make the direct link.”

 Mr. Flaherty was asked about his deputy minister’s comments.
“I’d certainly agree that the full impact [of the changes to mortgage rules] has not been felt yet,” said the Minister.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/finance-official-questions-link-between-cooling-housing-market-mortgage-rules/article4741736/

GF：一两年后回头来看，大温房市现在所见的跌幅只是冰山的一角。

列治文 Update

今日 (10/26) 列治文 独立屋总房源为1087.
平均要价为 $1,406,649
中位数要价为 $1,198,000.
今日算起之前30日，列治文只有 35个独立屋成交。
中位数成交价为 $938,000.
房源滞销31个月， 完全处于买方市场。

今日 (10/26) 列治文 非独立屋 (公寓+城市屋)总房源为1411.
平均要价为 $437,749
中位数要价为 $428,000.
今日算起之前30日，列治文只有 71个 非独立屋成交。
中位数成交价为 $410,000.
房源滞销20个月， 完全处于买方市场。

10月25日 大温总房源

Oct 1-19 YoY Stats

10月1-19日 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 1247 vs 1442 (下降14%)
新上市: 3098 vs 2835 (上升9%)
比例: 40% vs 51% (差11%)
预计月底成交量: 1980 vs 2317 (同比下降15%)
预计月底新上市: 4725 vs 4374 (同比上升8%)
预计月底总房源: 18200 vs 15377 (同比上升18%)
滞销量:9.1-9.5月 (预计) vs 6.6月 (同比)

大温地区滞销量在10月底将达到9.3个月 (十多年来第二高),继续维持于明显买方市场
今年10月成交/新上市比 将成为十多年来第二低,仅次于2008年。
预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续增加跌幅。

加拿大家庭负债/收入比例在重新计算后，大幅上升。 轻易超越美国房市泡沫顶端时期

Canada household debt-to-income ratio revised sharply higher, and still rising

Mon Oct 15, 2012 

Canada's household debt is far higher than previously thought relative to income, Statistics Canada's historical revisions revealed on Monday, heightening pressure on policy makers to address what they have called the biggest domestic threat to the economy.

And the rate was still rising to a new record in the second quarter -- before the tightening of mortgage insurance rules. The ratio of household credit-market debt to disposable income jumped to 163.4 percent in the second quarter from 161.8 percent, according to revisions made to bring the agency's methodology in line with updated international standards.

Under the old method, Statscan had reported a ratio of 152.0 percent for the first quarter.

The agency revised the ratio for 2011 to 161.7 percent from the previously estimated 150.6 percent.

The debt ratio is a key measure of the vulnerability of households to financial shocks, whether from a loss of income or a sharp fall in housing prices. A Statistics Canada analyst said the Canadian household debt-to-income ratio was well above that of the United States.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCABRE89E0P020121015

列治文地产经纪James Wong 警示：大温卖家开始夺门而出，长期跌幅已开始

James Wong, 即两个月前预测Richmond独立屋3年内下跌30%， 及上个月发表 "列治文跌幅加大，将持续几年，越早卖亏越少" 的列治文地产经纪， 今日再著作两篇文章。

1。列治文地产展望:
Market sentiment has deteriorated further. Buyers prefer to stay on the sideline, waiting for home prices to fall further. The only way out for sellers who are determined to sell was to price their home more aggressively. Sellers who are taking deep cuts in reducing their selling prices are the ones likely to succeed in selling their homes.
市场信心继续恶化。 潜在买方继续在旁观望，看着房价继续下跌。真正急着要卖的卖方只有一个选择，就是以更大幅度砍下要价。 目前市场惟有砍的够深的卖方才有指望有买家青睐。
Richmond detached homes over $1,000,000 are not seeing much buying interest. With total active listings of 686 and average sale around 28 homes the past 3 months, there are 24.5 months supply of homes in the market. For detached homes over $1,500,000, there are currently 353 homes for sale. With an average past 3 months sale of 12 homes, this translates into 29 months supply of homes. The decline in housing sales and home prices in Richmond will take many years to play out.
列治文大于$1M 的独立屋继续不受买方青睐。其总房源为686，过去3个月平均每月成交28户，达到24.5个月的滞销。 列治文大于$1.5M 的独立屋表现继续差劲，总房源为353， 过去3个月平均每月成交12户，达到29个月的滞销。 列治文房市的跌幅将需要许多年才会跌到底。
Now with the housing market experiencing a huge drop in sales, large over-hang of supply and poor market sentiment, home price decline is inevitable.
During the 1995 to 2001 downturn, not only employment in the construction industry contracted, thousands of real estate agents quit the business.
目前成交量大跌，房源滞销极高， 房价的下跌是无可避免的事实。
在1995-2001年处于下滑周期的房市，不只建筑业遭遇紧缩，几千个地产经纪也丢了饭碗。


2。强烈迹象显示，大温房市已进入将为期多年的下跌趋势。
We are now witnessing the unwinding of the housing market. It will take many years before owning a home makes sense again. Home prices are not going up now or holding. Instead, the housing market is coming down in values. The rush to exit the market will take its toll on sellers who bought their homes recently.
我们现在目睹的，是正在下跌中的大温房市。 我们还需要许多年才会见底。 房价现在不是上升，不是持平，而是已开始下跌。先知先觉的卖家正在夺门而出， 而最近(一年)才买房的卖家会面临逐日而增的亏损。

10月上旬数据与展望

10月1-12日 大温销售数据
2012 vs 2011
成交量: 840 vs 917 (下降8.4%)
新上市: 2210 vs 1840 (上升20%)
比例: 38% vs 50% (差12%)
预计月底成交量: 2000 vs 2317 (同比下降14%)
预计月底新上市: 5100 vs 4374 (同比上升17%)
预计月底总房源: 18700 vs 15377 (同比上升22%)
滞销量:9.3-9.6月 (预计) vs 6.6月 (同比)

大温地区滞销量在10月底将达到9.5个月 (十多年来第二高),继续维持于明显买方市场
今年10月新上市量可望创造十多年来新高。
而今年10月成交/新上市比 将成为十多年来第二低,仅次于2008年。
预计本月大温地产局指标价会继续增加跌幅。