上个历史课,从30到35到40, 每隔一年调整。
若现在调整,一点也不早
1999年,CMHC 加拿大联邦房贷公司 (等于美国的房利美和房地美 Fannie and Freddie) 放松了房贷规定,把最低首付降为5%, 造成了房贷债务加速成长 (同时也开始了这十多年的房地产旺市)
2003年 CMHC 除去了担保的房价上限
2005年 CMHC 延长房贷最长偿还期至30年
2006年 CMHC 延长房贷最长偿还期至35年
2006年美国房市泡沫破灭,加拿大政府紧急应变,大降利率, 并经由CMHC 加拿大联邦房贷公司 大幅增加房贷担保(纳税人付的钱作为保证),且间接纾困了银行$75 Billion 的高风险房贷。
2007年, CMHC 再次降低最低首付至0%, 更延长贷款摊还期至40年,以刺激房市
2008年底, CMHC 把首付调回5%,缩减贷款摊还期为35年
2009年,CMHC已经担保了$900Billion 房贷。 但CMHC只有9Billion的资产,杠杆率100:1。 (美国房利美Fannie Mae 之前的杠杆率为50:1)
www.fraserinstitute.or...x?id=15934
www2.macleans.ca/2011/...e-monster/
加拿大政府步入美国的后尘,以纳税人的税金来支撑房市,维持房价的泡沫。
2011年初,CMHC缩短贷款摊还期至30年,房贷有关条例严格化。财务院长及加拿大国家银行总裁不断警告利率迟早将回升,且人民应减少负债。
1981年的房价顶点后,过了25年(2006)房价才回升到同样价位。
Monday, 5 March 2012
中国，澳洲 news update
China cuts growth target to 8-year low
Mon Mar 5, 2012 5:48am EST
(Reuters) - Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao cut his nation's 2012 growth target to an eight-year low of 7.5 percent and made boosting consumer demand the year's first priority as Beijing looks to wean the economy off its reliance on external demand and foreign capital.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...topNews&rpc=71
Australia Services Index Plunges to Significant Contraction; Bleakest of Views From Retail Shops; Retail and Housing Bloodbath Coming Up
March 04, 2012 7:54 PM
Two more signs surfaced today that suggest Australia is headed for if not in recession.
Australia’s services industry declined in February to the lowest level in almost a year, driven by a drop in new orders as the gap between resources and other industries widens, a private survey showed.
The performance of services index sank to 46.7 last month from 51.9 in January, the weakest reading since March last year, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the Australian Industry Group said in Sydney today. Fifty is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.
Australia Service Index Components
Index sank to 46.7 from 51.9
Selling prices fell to 44.2 from 46.9
Employment measure slid to 47.5 from 51.2
Sales declined to 47.5 from 49.4
New orders plunged to 45.6 from 54.1
Wages indicator dipped to 57.7 from 57.8
Expect an across the board retail and housing bloodbath because one is coming.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...lunges-to.html
Mon Mar 5, 2012 5:48am EST
(Reuters) - Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao cut his nation's 2012 growth target to an eight-year low of 7.5 percent and made boosting consumer demand the year's first priority as Beijing looks to wean the economy off its reliance on external demand and foreign capital.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...topNews&rpc=71
Australia Services Index Plunges to Significant Contraction; Bleakest of Views From Retail Shops; Retail and Housing Bloodbath Coming Up
March 04, 2012 7:54 PM
Two more signs surfaced today that suggest Australia is headed for if not in recession.
Australia’s services industry declined in February to the lowest level in almost a year, driven by a drop in new orders as the gap between resources and other industries widens, a private survey showed.
The performance of services index sank to 46.7 last month from 51.9 in January, the weakest reading since March last year, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the Australian Industry Group said in Sydney today. Fifty is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.
Australia Service Index Components
Index sank to 46.7 from 51.9
Selling prices fell to 44.2 from 46.9
Employment measure slid to 47.5 from 51.2
Sales declined to 47.5 from 49.4
New orders plunged to 45.6 from 54.1
Wages indicator dipped to 57.7 from 57.8
Expect an across the board retail and housing bloodbath because one is coming.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...lunges-to.html
考虑提早还清房贷？ 新规则3月5日实施，银行将清楚告知罚款数量计算法
| 加拿大政府3月5日新规:各银行贷款机构将陆续公开罚款数量计算法 CBA Welcomes New Rules for Mortgage Prepayments www.marketwatch.com/st...2012-03-04 Improved Penalty Disclosures On The Way www.canadianmortgagetr...-soon.html The government has just announced a brand new mortgage “code” that requires federal financial institutions: “…provide more information on how prepayment charges are calculated.” “…explain the differences between mortgage products, including ways to pay off a mortgage faster without incurring penalties.” These improved disclosures have been eagerly anticipated by consumer groups。 Indeed, the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada (FCAC) says it “has observed a significant increase in the number of complaints it has received related to mortgage prepayment penalties,” especially interest rate differential (IRD) charges. 官方原文: CG-8 MORTGAGE PREPAYMENT PENALTY DISCLOSURE www.fcac-acfc.gc.ca/en...ex-eng.asp | |
Saturday, 3 March 2012
2月各区 成交/上市量 概览
GF 追踪的区域及房型中, 表现最差 的为:
#1 Richmond 独立屋 - 成交量大跌53%
2012-2月: 成交 119 / 新上市 295 = 比例 40%
2011-2月: 成交 251 / 新上市 395 = 比例 64%
#2 Richmond 公寓 - 成交量下跌31%
2012-2月: 成交 125 / 新上市 299 = 比例 42%
2011-2月: 成交 181 / 新上市 297 = 比例 61%
#3 温哥华西区 独立屋 - 成交量下跌27%
2012-2月: 成交 177 / 新上市 319 = 比例 55%
2011-2月: 成交 242 / 新上市 360 = 比例 67%
#4 Vancouver East 独立屋 - 成交量下跌24%
2012-2月: 成交 125 / 新上市 248 = 比例 50%
2011-2月: 成交 165 / 新上市 283 = 比例 58%
#5 Burnaby 公寓 - 成交量下跌16%
2012-2月: 成交 134 / 新上市 305 = 比例 44%
2011-2月: 成交 160 / 新上市 286 = 比例 56%
#6 Vancouver East 公寓 - 成交量下跌12%
2012-2月: 成交 102 / 新上市 236 = 比例 43%
2011-2月: 成交 116 / 新上市 187 = 比例 62%
GF 追踪的区域及房型中, 表现较好 (较不差) 的为:
#1 Coquitlam 独立屋
2012-2月: 成交 127 / 新上市 216 = 比例 59%
2011-2月: 成交 108 / 新上市 189 = 比例 57%
#2 Coquitlam 公寓
2012-2月: 成交 69 / 新上市 195 = 比例 35%
2011-2月: 成交 61 / 新上市 153 = 比例 40%
#3 Burnaby 独立屋
2012-2月: 成交 105 / 新上市 198 = 比例 53%
2011-2月: 成交 105 / 新上市 188 = 比例 56%
*GF 目前没有追踪: 西温,北温,温西公寓,各区非独立屋。
#1 Richmond 独立屋 - 成交量大跌53%
2012-2月: 成交 119 / 新上市 295 = 比例 40%
2011-2月: 成交 251 / 新上市 395 = 比例 64%
#2 Richmond 公寓 - 成交量下跌31%
2012-2月: 成交 125 / 新上市 299 = 比例 42%
2011-2月: 成交 181 / 新上市 297 = 比例 61%
#3 温哥华西区 独立屋 - 成交量下跌27%
2012-2月: 成交 177 / 新上市 319 = 比例 55%
2011-2月: 成交 242 / 新上市 360 = 比例 67%
#4 Vancouver East 独立屋 - 成交量下跌24%
2012-2月: 成交 125 / 新上市 248 = 比例 50%
2011-2月: 成交 165 / 新上市 283 = 比例 58%
#5 Burnaby 公寓 - 成交量下跌16%
2012-2月: 成交 134 / 新上市 305 = 比例 44%
2011-2月: 成交 160 / 新上市 286 = 比例 56%
#6 Vancouver East 公寓 - 成交量下跌12%
2012-2月: 成交 102 / 新上市 236 = 比例 43%
2011-2月: 成交 116 / 新上市 187 = 比例 62%
GF 追踪的区域及房型中, 表现较好 (较不差) 的为:
#1 Coquitlam 独立屋
2012-2月: 成交 127 / 新上市 216 = 比例 59%
2011-2月: 成交 108 / 新上市 189 = 比例 57%
#2 Coquitlam 公寓
2012-2月: 成交 69 / 新上市 195 = 比例 35%
2011-2月: 成交 61 / 新上市 153 = 比例 40%
#3 Burnaby 独立屋
2012-2月: 成交 105 / 新上市 198 = 比例 53%
2011-2月: 成交 105 / 新上市 188 = 比例 56%
*GF 目前没有追踪: 西温,北温,温西公寓,各区非独立屋。
Friday, 2 March 2012
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)