re: the West Van dismemberment murder of Mr. Gang Yuan.

Global News
CBC
Province

the Chinese media already dug out a lot of details, including this news piece in Province

“The empty $2-million house next door”

“Richmond couple wants to talk to their neighbours about trimming a hedge, but nobody’s home…ever”

“No one will talk to us and no one will tell us who the owners are,” said Brian Cooper, 62, who has lived in the 5500-block Cathay Road for 37 years.

“If the owner is ever located, the Coopers would like to talk about trimming the hedge, which is undermining their stone wall.”

“You buy a $2-million house and you can’t even spend $200 on a gardener?” asked Linda Cooper.

The home is located in a 1960s-era subdivision of West Richmond that has filled up with 5,000-square-foot homes on double-sized 10,000-square-foot lots. It sold in 2011 for $1.4 million.

“According to real estate agent Melissa Wu, whose listing is on the property, it was recently sold for $2.3 million to an undisclosed buyer.”

Well, Mr Yuan was the one who purchased the property. He was already deceased before Province published the article.

Other details:
1. Mr Yuan is Mr Zhao’s brother-in-law. Mr. Yuan paid for the $5M West Van mansion but had it registered under Mr. Zhao’s name. “The Zhaos were registered as the owners for “legitimate tax reason”” as per Yuan’s lawyer.

2. Mr Yuan owned:
– 7500 acres of agriculture land in Regina
– one of his properties is worth $14M
– two cars worth $600k
– $9.9M worth of business deal in progress

3. Mr Zhao’s daughter, Flo Z, is in the reality show: “Ultra Rich Asian Girls of Vancouver”

“The lawyer also alleged that Zhao’s daughter Florence, who starred on Vancouver reality show Ultra Rich Asian Girls, wrongly claimed some of Yuan’s wealth was her own on the series.

“She pretend to own Mr. Yuan’s assets, including an island called Pym Island, his Rolls Royce, and his house in Vancouver””

Mr. Trump always has a flair for the dramatic.

Mar 10, 2015
“Large glass panes fall from Trump tower construction site in Vancouver”

Mar 24 & Nov 14, 2012 (Toronto)
Falling glass danger closes downtown streets

“No glass came down, but this is the third time there have been concerns about glass falling from the Trump tower. Glass fell twice from the skyscraper in 2012. ”

“We need to ask some sharp questions to builders about how they’re constructing these buildings,” he said. “If this is happening now with buildings that have just recently gone up we can imagine what will happen five or 10 years from now.”

Vocal academic isn’t just an observer of Vancouver’s real estate industry – he’s part of it

Ian Young does it again!

Vocal academic isn’t just an observer of Vancouver’s real estate industry – he’s part of it

Tsur Somerville’s institution has been sponsored by developers, and he’s done no peer-reviewed research into the city’s extreme unaffordability

"Anyone hoping to get a handle on the mechanisms driving Vancouver’s eye-popping real estate market and the impact of Chinese money soon runs into the same problem: An apparent lack of data.

Data DOES exist (more on this later), but the supposed void has been filled with the opinions of a range of experts. And no pundit has been more enthusiastic than Dr Tsur Somerville, director of the UBC Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate.

For years, Somerville, armed with a PhD in economics from Harvard, has been a driving force behind some key notions: That there is nothing terribly abnormal or bubbly about prices in Vancouver (where the average price of a detached house is about C$1.4million); that affordability is best addressed on the supply side with more development, and not by addressing demand; and that worrying about the impact of Chinese money is racist."

Sponsorship and research

Now to the crux of the matter. While Somerville is enthusiastically cited - more than 100 times in the Vancouver Sun alone in the past five years - little if any mention is made of an  important fact: His Centre for Urban Economics is sponsored by the real estate industry. And his job is to prepare people to join that industry.

The centre’s sponsors have included the developers Grosvenor, Henderson Development, and the Vancouver chapter of the Commercial Real Estate Development Association (all currently listed on the centre’s website), as well as Polygon Homes, the Canadian Home Builders’ Association and the Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association (listed as sponsors as recently as 2012, along with Grosvenor).

"Somerville, of course, remains entitled to his opinions and he’s entitled to share them, whatever they may be. But anyone considering their value would do well to recognise the Centre Urban Economics for what it is: The academic wing of Vancouver’s real estate industry. And Dr Somerville isn’t merely an observer of that industry. He’s a part of it."

Chinese police run secret operations in B.C. to hunt allegedly corrupt officials and laundered money

Chinese police agents have been conducting secret operations in Canada — a top destination for allegedly corrupt officials — seeking to “repatriate” suspects and money laundered in real estate.

Vancouver city officials will not comment on co-operation with Chinese agents in “Operation Fox Hunt,” or on suspects pointed to by Chinese news services.

Xinhua news agency reported that while China does not have extradition treaties with Canada, the United States and Australia — the three top destinations for corruption suspects — in 2013 Canada and China signed an agreement to share assets connected to corruption.

Starting in 2014, Chinese agents came to Canada and other countries, Xinhua reported.

The Province found indications in various data sources of large wealth allegedly misappropriated in China and invested in condo and commercial developments and private residences in and around Vancouver.

Postmedia News reported that in his new book David Mulroney — a former senior adviser to Prime Minister Stephen Harper and ambassador to China from 2009 to 2012 — argues that Canada needs to take measures to block the influx of “hot money” pouring into real estate, and could go “much further” to co-operate with China in Operation Fox Hunt.

Feb 2015 Month-End Vancouver RE Snapshot

Feb 1-28 2015 vs 2014:

Sales: 3086 vs 2530 = +22% YoY  (was +9% YoY last month)

New Lists: 5390 vs 4700 = +15% YoY (was -11% YoY last month)

Sales/New List Ratio: 57% vs 56%

Total Inventory: 11930 vs 13412 = -11% YoY (was -14% YoY last month)

* Projected MOI for Feb/15: 3.9 months = Mild Seller's Market

* Last February had MOI of 5.3 months (balanced market) 

* Feb 2015 brought marked YoY increase in Both sales and new listings.

* New Listings = +14% above 10 year average (2005-2014)

* Sales = +21% above 10 year average (2005-2014)

* Sales/New List Ratio similar to last year. 

Feb 1-20 Vancouver RE Snapshot

Feb 1-20 2015 vs 2014:

Sales: 2240 vs 1845 = +21% YoY  (was +38% YoY a week ago)

New Lists: 4065 vs 3493 = +16% YoY (was +17% YoY a week ago)

Sales/New List Ratio: 55% vs 53%

Total Inventory: 12669 vs 14197 = -11% YoY (was -12% YoY a week ago)

Projected Months-of-Inventory for Feb/15: 3.7-4.3 = Seller's Market

* This past week (Feb 16-20) saw continued increase in new listings, while #  of registered sales this week was the same as last year.

Feb 1-13 Vancouver RE Snapshot

Feb 1-13 2015 vs 2014:

Sales: 1476 vs 1069 = +38% YoY *

New Lists: 2653 vs 2262 = +17% YoY

Total Inventory: 12254 vs 13959 = -12% YoY

Projected Months-of-Inventory for Feb/15: 3.5-4.5 = Seller's Market

*last 2 days had spike of sales.

"Seller takes big loss on Vancouver Olympic Village condo"

via Globe & Mail

77 WALTER HARDWICK AVE., UNIT 404, VANCOUVER

ASKING PRICE $1,299,000

SELLING PRICE $1,225,000

Days on market Seven

Taxes $3,845

Maintenance fees $723.39

Listing agent Danny Chow, Rennie & Associates

Selling agent Bryan Yan, Regent Park Realty

The Action: The seller of this Olympic Village condo paid $1.565-million plus HST in 2010 – a loss of more than half a million dollars, according to selling agent Bryan Yan. “If they got in early, they got burnt,” he says.

Feb 1-6 Vancouver RE Snapshot

Feb 1-6 2015 vs 2014:

Sales: 743 vs 614 = +21% YoY

New Lists: 1423 vs 1242 = +15% YoY

Total Inventory: 11918 vs 13717 = -13% YoY

Jan 2015 Vancouver RE Sales Estimate

Jan 2015 (estimated): 

Sales: +7.5% YoY, +15% vs 10Y (2005-14)

New Lists: -13% YoY, +2% vs 10Y

Total Inventory: -13%

MOI: 5.8 vs 7.2 months (balanced/seller's market)

*MOI = Months of inventory

Oliver says Ottawa exploring ‘steps’ for hot housing market as ministers meet

Oliver says Ottawa exploring ‘steps’ for hot housing market as ministers meet

Finance Minister Joe Oliver says the federal government could take “moderate steps” to address Canada’s strong housing market as he began two days of meetings on Sunday with his provincial counterparts.

The two-day gathering is also expected to reveal the latest figures on federal transfer payments to the provinces as well as explore the effect of plunging oil prices.

On his way to the first meeting, Oliver was also asked about Canada’s rising household debt and the country’s potentially overvalued housing market — two risks repeatedly raised by the Bank of Canada.

“In terms of household debt and the real-estate market, this is a subject, of course, we’re monitoring very carefully,” said Oliver, who reiterated his position that there is no housing bubble.

“So, we’re not going to take any dramatic steps in that regard, but we may take some moderate steps.”

Oliver did not elaborate and added his department had yet to make a decision on this subject.

Canada preparing to return property

China Daily: Canada preparing to return property

"Canada and China are ready to sign an agreement to return illegal assets seized from fugitives of economic crime, including corrupt officials, according to a senior Canadian diplomat.

Canada's Ambassador to China Guy Saint-Jacques told China Daily that the countries have made "good progress this year" in the fight against corruption.

The agreement "is ready to be signed on the return of property related to people who would have fled to Canada and would have been involved in corrupt activities," the ambassador said.

Once the agreement is signed, "it will serve as a model for other countries. I think on that front we should have good progress," he said.

Corrupt Chinese officials and smugglers seeking shelter in Canada have led to long-term controversy.

In mid November, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation member economies decided to set up a cross-border law enforcement network to strengthen transnational anti-corruption cooperation in the region.

Beijing and Ottawa have "good collaboration" and have returned more than 1,200 people in the past three years, including more than 60 who were sought in China for criminal reasons, according to the ambassador.

Beijing has made remarkable progress in repatriating fugitive officials and other economic criminals from destinations worldwide.

At least 428 Chinese suspects had been captured abroad by the end of October under Beijing's Fox Hunt 2014 operation."

Canada's housing market overvalued by as much as 30%: BoC

The Bank of Canada has acknowledged that the country’s housing market may be overvalued by as much as 30 per cent as a long-awaited soft landing remains elusive.

The bank said Canadian house prices have been overvalued by at least 10 per cent since 2007, and may now have overshot by anywhere from 10 to 30 per cent.

The range is significantly higher than estimates by the International Monetary Fund (10 per cent) and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., which judges there is a “moderate degree of overvaluation.”

Bank Governor Stephen Poloz acknowledged Wednesday that “some financial vulnerabilities appear to be edging higher.”

These include a growing appetite in Canada for subprime mortgages and risky auto loans, triggered by sustained low interest rates.

About 35 per cent of new, uninsured mortgages by smaller federally regulated banks since the end of 2012 could be considered non-prime, according to the report.

“Slim pickings for China’s immigration industry in Canada’s new investor migration scheme”

“Slim pickings for China’s immigration industry in Canada’s new investor migration scheme”

“For years, Canada’s immigrant investor programme was the Chinese immigration industry’s cash cow. A money tree. A goose that popped out golden eggs like a tennis ball machine.

Big commissions (more on this below) and a seemingly endless supply of mainland millionaires covetous of Canadian passports made the scheme the Chinese consultants’ favourite. So when it was axed this year, all eyes were on the promised replacement – would it offer similarly rewarding opportunities?

The new scheme has not been formally unveiled yet – expect that in coming weeks – but sources familiar with the government’s plans are now giving a good idea of what to expect. And it’s fair to say that immigration minister Chris Alexander is being crossed off a lot of Christmas card lists in China.”

“Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported last week that the government was targeting total investments of C$120 million (HK$820 million) under the scheme, with each applicant contributing C$1 million to C$2 million. That implies an intake of 60 to 120.

Fifty, 60 or 120 – it matters not at all, compared to the vast scale of the old IIP, which brought about 37,000 rich immigrants to BC from 2005 to 2012. When it was formally scrapped in June, 60,000 would-be millionaire migrants in the years-long queue had their applications dumped too; about 40,000 of those were likely bound for Vancouver.

The new venture capital scheme looks like being so minuscule as to serve little more purpose than allowing the government to keep its promise to replace the IIP. It certainly won’t provide viable access to Canada for the bulk of the dumped IIP applicants.”

West Vancouver may soon curb “monster homes” via zoning and building bylaw changes

West Vancouver may soon curb “monster homes” via zoning and building bylaw changes 

Consultation at city hall Sept 15 at 7pm.

This news was widely discussed in local Chinese forums. Some speculate that the new rules will drive down property/lot values in West Van.
Though some also speculate this rule change will drive up existing monster homes’ values.

CMHC could force banks to pay deductibles on mortgage insurance

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/09/08/cmhc-could-force-banks-to-pay-deductibles-on-mortgage-insurance/

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is looking at a new formula to push some of its losses on to financial institutions, essentially forcing them to pay a deductible on mortgages insured with the Crown corporation before claims are paid, according to sources.
The Financial Post has learned the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions is involved in discussions with CMHC, which it oversees, while the Canadian Bankers Association is said to be against the measure.

Investors in Brampton house development hit with $30K bill

Via City News

09/05/2014
"Investors in a Brampton house development are suffering from a severe case of “sticker shock” after they found out the homes they purchased — originally scheduled to be completed in 2012 — will cost them an extra $30,000 in closing costs now that they are finally done.

Fernbrook Homes is telling the investors in the Castlemore development that if they want the keys to their new homes, they’ll need to pay up.

The buyers are upset since Fernbrook did not apply for a building permit until March of 2013 – one full year after the project was to be finished – and now they have to foot the very large, and unexpected, bill."

Caveat Emptor

Is Vancouver West High-end Demand Really Weaning?

It's been a while since I posted due to life events, travel, and busy work schedule.
Good to be back!  I did continue to post daily stats and noteworthy news on my twitter account (@greaterfoolvan) however!

Globe & Mail today had this piece

"Is the dip in high-end house sales in Vancouver just a summer blip?"

"He says listings are up in certain segments while sales are looking stagnant. The figures for single detached homes on Vancouver’s west side in the $3-million to $3.5-million price bracket – which is certainly high-end but not quite “luxury” – show 106 active listings and just nine sales, compared with 73 listed homes and 7 sales during July, 2013.“Right now, these numbers are showing blood in the water – and the sharks haven’t sniffed yet,” Mr. Kurland said."

I got my hands on the sales-by-price-range charts of Van West and Burnaby for 2012-2014, figure I'll do some quick math. Here goes:

Jan-July 31 Sales
Vancouver West

>3M

2012: 175

2013: 214

2014: 321

Jan-July 31 Sales
Burnaby

>2M

2012: 13

2013: 13

2014: 19

We can see thus far in 2014, cumulative from Jan-July there has been more high-end sales than previous 2 years in Van West and Burnaby.

However from some other data sources, there are some indications that the high-end sales are softening in the last 2 months (especially in Burnaby).  Based on the asking vs sold price differential, there seem to be increased bargaining room in the higher end (1.5M+).

China's CCTV reports on Canada's high priced housing market, June 2014

Youtube: China's CCTV on Canada's RE

Also, Remember the announcement of IIP cancellation? It’s finally in effect:

Terminated programs: Federal Immigrant Investor and Entrepreneurs
On June 19 2014, Bill C-31 became law, and applications still in the backlog of the federal Immigrant Investor Program and Entrepreneur Program were terminated.

Almost two-thirds of typically insured homeowners have a downpayment of less than 10%

CMHC decision to disclose more mortgage data wins applause

 May 30, 2014 
"almost two-thirds of typically insured homeowners have a downpayment of less than 10%."

“Someone with only 5% down would be left with 88% loan to value after five years of regular mortgage payments,” Mr. McLister said. “With a correction over 10%, many 5%-downers would be left underwater. In other words, it would be difficult or impossible for many to sell their home and generate enough equity to pay off their mortgage, cover expenses and move.”